Mission dossier
Affordable-housing pipeline distribution (San Francisco)
San Francisco (41 analysis neighbourhoods) · Data as of 2026-10-16
Exploratory research mission. It has not been validated, reviewed or adopted, and nothing here is a recommendation.
This mission at a glance
- Where you are
- A public mission dossier. You can read it without an account or the 3D Earth.
- What you can do
- Read the problem, its sources and what is unknown
- Open the workspace and test the scenarios yourself
- Add what you have seen, kept in your browser
- Who takes part
- You, in your own browser. Shared participation with other people is not open yet.
- What the agents really do
- 5 software identities, each with one permitted tool per task. They run deterministic tools in your browser: no language model, no real-world action.
- What is verified
- 3 public source(s), each with its licence and retrieval date, plus 1 CORE record(s), not independent evidence
- Evidence checks run by code
- What remains
- 5 declared gaps in the evidence
- Scientific model validation: Not done yet
- Independent expert review: Not available yet
- Institutional decision: Outside CORE
- Measured real-world outcome: None so far
- What a human has validated
- Nothing. No reviewer or institution has validated this mission.
The problem
Where is San Francisco’s affordable housing planned, and how does that compare with where housing has actually been completed?
The exact research question
Where are planned affordable units in San Francisco concentrated, does that follow where affordable housing was recently completed, and what evidence is missing before saying anything about need?
How it was found
The CORE team defined this question from dated public DataSF snapshots. No resident report started it.
Why it matters
Housing costs push families out of the city, and new affordable homes built in flood-prone places could expose the people they are meant to help.
Where
San Francisco (41 analysis neighbourhoods)
Evidence and what is unknown
Sources used by this mission
- MOHCD Affordable Housing Pipeline
Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development · ODC Public Domain Dedication and License (PDDL) · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
- Housing Production 2005–present, by completion year
San Francisco Planning Department · Public Domain U.S. Government · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
- Housing Production by analysis neighborhood, since 2015
San Francisco Planning Department · Public Domain U.S. Government · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
- Snapshot manifest: URLs, retrieval dates, SHA-256, privacy and gapsCORE’s own record, not independent evidence
CORE (scripts/housing-snapshot.mjs) · CORE published record (this repository) · retrieved 2026-10-16
What the sources show
- Calculated from public sources
Net new homes completed: 4,520 a year on average in 2016–2020, 2,794 a year in 2021–2025 (-38.2%).
Housing Production 2005–present (aggregated by completion year) · Public Domain U.S. Government · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
Completions reported to the Planning Department; the current year is partial and excluded; a completion says nothing about prices.
- Calculated from public sources
5,253 affordable homes out of 13,969 completed in 2021–2025, i.e. 37.6%.
Housing Production 2005–present (aggregated by completion year) · Public Domain U.S. Government · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
Part of the “affordable” count is estimated by the source (affordable_is_estimate); “affordable” refers to programme income limits, not to household incomes.
- Observed in a public source
The city’s pipeline holds 190 unfinished projects for 10,100 affordable homes (66 of them 100% affordable projects).
MOHCD Affordable Housing Pipeline · ODC Public Domain Dedication and License (PDDL) · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
Completion dates are MOHCD estimates; a pipeline project can be delayed or abandoned.
- Calculated from public sources
41.5% of the pipeline’s affordable homes are in three neighborhoods: Bayview Hunters Point (1,533), Financial District/South Beach (1,358), Mission (1,300).
MOHCD Affordable Housing Pipeline · ODC Public Domain Dedication and License (PDDL) · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
An observed concentration; it does not say whether it is desirable.
- Observed in a public source
Eviction notices filed: 2,091 in 2015, a low of 778 in 2020, 1,495 in 2025.
Eviction Notices — aggregated counts (no record-level data kept) · ODC Public Domain Dedication and License (PDDL) · retrieved 2026-10-16 · source
A notice filed is not an eviction carried out; 2020–2021 were shaped by public-health moratoria; aggregated counts only (no individual data kept).
- Calculated from public sources
In the study area (SoMa, Mission, Tenderloin), 5 of the 95 unfinished affordable projects (68 homes) lie in the 100-year storm flood risk zone (2022).
100-Year Storm Flood Risk Zone (July 2022) · ODC Public Domain Dedication and License (PDDL) · retrieved 2026-10-14 · source
Stormwater flooding zone (not sea-level rise); study area only; a project inside the zone may plan protections these data do not describe.
What is still unknown
- Renter cost burden, median rents and incomes: not established (the Census Data API now requires a key; no key without a founder decision).
- Market prices and rents: no open source loaded.
- Zoning capacity and land constraints: not loaded.
- Transit access per project: not computed (no service data loaded).
- No cause-and-effect relationship is established by these counts.
- Pipeline status and completion dates are the department’s estimates; planned units are not homes delivered.
- Completions are reported counts; some affordable counts are estimates by the source.
- Neither dataset measures need, affordability, rent burden or displacement; no causal claim is possible.
- Eviction notices are bundled but deliberately not used by this mission.
Agents and their limits
Agents are software identities with one permitted tool per task. On this public site they run deterministic tools in your browser: no language model, no network, no real-world action. They only propose; people decide.
- CORE-DAT-002 Data-quality analyst
- Check licenses, retrieval dates and checksums of the bundled snapshot; list declared gaps.
housing.sourcesread-bundled
- Check licenses, retrieval dates and checksums of the bundled snapshot; list declared gaps.
- CORE-HOU-002 Affordable-pipeline analyst
- Aggregate planned affordable units by neighborhood.
housing.pipelinecompute-local
- Aggregate planned affordable units by neighborhood.
- CORE-HOU-001 Housing-production analyst
- Summarize reported completions over time and by neighborhood.
housing.productioncompute-local
- Summarize reported completions over time and by neighborhood.
- CORE-ETH-002 Fairness analyst
- Compare the two distributions and state what they cannot show.
housing.comparecompare
- Compare the two distributions and state what they cannot show.
- CORE-HSG-0017 Direction: Housing and land use
- Draft testable hypotheses (local model only; otherwise unavailable).
reason.hypotheseslocal-model - Compose the report and hand it to human review.
report.composereport-local
- Draft testable hypotheses (local model only; otherwise unavailable).
Scenarios and their limits
No recorded scenario for this mission. Its analysis compares public data.
Hypotheses, not findings
- Insufficient production
The drop in completions since 2021 contributes to the shortage of affordable homes.
- Displacement pressure
The rise in eviction notices since 2023 signals pressure on renters, unevenly spread across neighbourhoods.
- Location and resilience
Part of the study area’s affordable pipeline is exposed to flood risk: building more could expose more low-income households.
Recorded objections
- 2020–2021 (moratoria) distort any eviction-notice trend: compare outside those years.
- H1 and H2 are not mutually exclusive; no loaded data can tell them apart. Do not present a hypothesis as the cause.
- Eviction notices concern people: use aggregates only, never locate households.
- The 100-year stormwater zone is only one risk; a project outside it is not thereby safe.
Collaborate
This mission has no shared space yet. What you add stays in your browser, and nobody receives it.
What would validate it
- Evidence checksWorking
- Exploratory simulationsWorking, uncalibrated
- Scientific model validationNot done yet
- Independent expert reviewNot available yet
- Institutional decisionOutside CORE
- Measured real-world outcomeNone so far
Before any real-world claim
- Housing need and affordability measures by neighborhood (missing)
- Verified completion dates for pipeline projects (unverified)
- Independent review (missing)
Decisions and results
- Human review
- Not done
- Institutional decision
- None
- Measured real-world result
- None
Housing decisions in San Francisco rest with city bodies such as the Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development and the Planning Department. CORE has no agreement with them and sends them nothing.